GBP/USD turns red on sluggish UK jobs data
Fawad Razaqzada 2018年07月17日 下午7:40
Investors have been left wondering whether today’s sluggish jobs data may have any implications on the Bank of England’s rate decision next month. Total pay levels rose at an annual rate of 2.5% in the three months to May, unchanged from April, according to the ONS. Meanwhile regular pay growth, which excludes bonuses, rose 2.7% over the same period, down from 2.8% in the three moths to April. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% as expected. But more up-to-date labour market data revealed that jobless claims rose by 7,800 in July, which was more than 2,300 expected. So, overall, today’s data from the UK was slightly below estimates, but not too bad to ring any alarm bells. Although wage growth wasn’t robust, it was still enough to keep the probability of a rate increase in next month around 76% and this figure could actually rise further should tomorrow’s inflation figures meet or surpass expectations. However, if inflation numbers also disappoint expectations then the odds of a rate hike next month could weaken further and consequently the pound could come under some real pressure. In any case, the US dollar’s bullish trend remains intact owing to a hawkish Federal Reserve and this should continue to provide additional pressure on the GBP/USD for the foreseeable future and regardless of short-term bounces here and there.
As noted yesterday, we were not convinced that the GBP/USD’s formation of a bullish hammer candle on Friday marked the low for the cable, for we are still bullish on the dollar. Indeed, despite Monday’s slightly bullish follow-through there hasn’t been any firm acceptance above Friday’s range, making the GBP/USD bulls sweat a little. Now that rates have gone back below Friday’s high and showing some acceptance there, this suggests that the bulls who bought above Friday’s high are now trapped. Even if rates were to turn around again and turn positive we will remain objective and only turn bullish when there is a break in market structure of lower lows and lower highs. The most recent high was at 1.3470. So, this would be the line in the sand for us. For now, though, the path of least resistance is again to the downside and as a result we could see the cable drop to the next pool of liquidity, which is undoubtedly below Friday’s hammer candle at 1.3100. The psychological level of 1.3000 could be the near term bearish objective although we wouldn’t rule out the prospects of an eventual drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at just below 1.2900 in the coming days.
本文所含内容及观点仅为一般信息，并无任何意图被视为买卖任何货币或差价合约的建议或请求。文中所 含内容及观点匀可能在不被通知的情况下更改。本文并未考虑任何特定用户的特定投资目标、财务状况和 需求。任何引用历史价格波动或价位水平的信息均基于我们的分析，并不表示或证明此类波动或价位水平 有可能在未来重新发生。本文所载信息之来源虽被认为可靠，但作者不保证它的准确性和完整性，同时作者也不对任何可能因参考本文内容及观点而产生的任何直接或间接的损失承担责任。
期货、期货期权、外汇和其他产品交易存在高风险，不适合所有投资者。亏损可能超出您的账户注资。减低安全资金要求意味着增加风险。黄金、白银现货交易不受《美国商品交易法案》的监管。差价合约(CFDs) 不对美国居民提供。在决定交易外汇之前，您需仔细考虑您的财务目标、经验水平和风险承受能力。文中所含任何意见、 新闻、研究、分析、报价或其他信息等都仅作与本文所含主题相关的一般类信息，同时嘉盛全球市场有限公司不提供任何投资、法律或税务的建议。您需要合适的顾问征询所有关于投资、法律或税务方面的事宜。有关FOREX.com或嘉盛集团请参考嘉盛集团股份有限公司 (GAIN Capital Holdings Inc.) 以及旗下子公司相关信息。